ABD Başkan Yardımcısı JD Vance, Kongre ara seçimlerinde Cumhuriyetçi Partinin yaşadığı yenilginin nedenini İran'la savaş ve İsrail'le ilişkiler olarak değerlendirdi. Vance, seçmen desteğini yeniden kazanmak için savaşın sona erdirilmesi ve hayat pahalılığına odaklanılması gerektiğini belirtti.
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us." Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.) In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026
Seçim sonuçlarını ABD merkezli X şirketinin sosyal medya platformundaki hesabından değerlendiren Vance, Cumhuriyetçilerin kaybının temel nedeninin savaş olduğunu savundu ve ABD Başkanı Donald Trump'ın da bu konuya dikkati çektiğini ifade etti.
Seçmen desteğini yeniden kazanmak için dört maddelik bir yol haritası paylaşan Vance, İran'la savaşın sona erdirilmesi, hayat pahalılığı ve enflasyonla mücadeleye öncelik verilmesi, "önce Amerika" anlayışının benimsenmesi ve İsrail ile ilişkilerin değiştirilmesi gerektiğini kaydetti.
Cumhuriyetçi analistlere eleştiri
Vance, seçim sürecinde Cumhuriyetçi Partinin kendi veri analistlerinin seçmen davranışlarına ilişkin değerlendirmelerinin gerçeği yansıtmadığını belirterek, Demokratların güçlü sonuçlar alacağına işaret eden anketlere rağmen parti içinde iyimser bir hava hakim olduğunu aktardı.
Öte yandan yasa dışı göçmenlere yönelik genel af önerilerine karşı çıkan Vance, göç politikalarının uygulanma biçiminin değiştirilebileceğini ancak af seçeneğinin çözüm olmadığını savundu. Seçim sonuçları konusunda daha önce uyaran Cumhuriyetçilere de hak verdiğini belirten Vance, parti tabanına yaşanan yenilginin ardından yeniden ülkenin sorunlarına odaklanma çağrısı yaptı.
ABD Başkanı Trump da Cumhuriyetçilerin seçimlerde yaşadığı kayıpta İran'la savaşın etkili olup olmadığına ilişkin soruya, "İran da bunun bir parçasıydı." yanıtını vermişti.